Game Breakdown: Pirates vs Cubs Head-to-Head Insights 9/13/2026

+145O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-165

Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bubba Chandler has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 56.5% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Despite posting a .258 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Henry Davis has experienced some negative variance given the .057 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .315.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-165)
Out of all the teams playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Michael Conforto has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 11.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-165)
The 4th-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.40 Units / 24% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.60 Units / 52% ROI)
Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+160/-210)
Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+7.05 Units / 70% ROI)

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