Get Bets and Betting Tips for Brewers vs Pirates – 9/06/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates clash on September 6, 2025, at PNC Park, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the National League Central. The Brewers sit comfortably at 87-55, enjoying a strong season, while the Pirates are languishing at 64-78, struggling to find any rhythm. The Brewers took the first game of this series, and they will aim to continue their momentum against a Pirates team that has been unable to keep pace.

Mitch Keller is projected to take the mound for Pittsburgh, but he has had a challenging season with a 6-13 record and a 4.21 ERA, which, while above average, still reflects inconsistency. Keller’s low strikeout rate of 19.8% could be a concern against a Brewers offense that ranks 9th best in MLB, showing considerable talent. However, Keller’s control has been good, with a low 6.6% walk rate, which may help him navigate a patient Brewers lineup that draws walks frequently.

On the other side, Brandon Woodruff is expected to start for Milwaukee, boasting a 5-2 record and a solid 3.69 ERA. His 2.53 xERA suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. Woodruff’s ability to limit damage is essential, especially against a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in MLB, struggling significantly in power and average.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs, oddsmakers see this as a closely contested matchup. Despite the Pirates holding a strong bullpen ranked 7th best in MLB, their offensive struggles may hinder their ability to capitalize. The Brewers are favored, reflecting their overall offensive strength and pitching advantage, making them a team to watch as they seek to continue their winning ways against a struggling Pirates squad.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Brandon Woodruff was on point in his previous start and notched 8 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Andrew Vaughn is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be smart to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Mitch Keller has averaged 91.7 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, ranking in the 77th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Bryan Reynolds has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.4-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 91-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 85 of their last 141 games (+23.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-155)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 101 games (+28.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• William Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)
  William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 70% ROI)