See Picks and Betting Line for Angels vs Yankees – Thursday, April 16, 2026

Los Angeles Angels

@

New York Yankees

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+230)
  Brent Suter’s 86.2-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 1st percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Travis d’Arnaud – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+190/-250)
  Placing in the 0th percentile for base-stealing, Travis d’Arnaud has average 0 swiped bags per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Zach Neto pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Max Fried has been granted an above-average leash since the start of last season, tallying 7.3 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Posting a .423 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Aaron Judge finds himself in the 100th percentile for hitting ability.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-295)
  The best projected offense of the day in terms of overall batting ability is that of the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-310)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Jose Caballero has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.95 Units / 27% ROI)