Explore Royals vs Tigers Expert Picks and Betting Guide - 4/16/2026

-120O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+100

Kris Bubic – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kris Bubic has utilized his non-fastballs 11.7% less often this year (44.4%) than he did last season (56.1%).
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Carter Jensen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
With a .463 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Carter Jensen is positioned in the 100th percentile for offensive skills.
Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
Michael Massey pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
Keider Montero was on point in his last game started and conceded 2 ER.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Jahmai Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
Jahmai Jones has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Detroit grades out as the #1 team in the league when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (17.6% rate since the start of last season).
Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+9.45 Units / 16% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)

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