Explore Royals vs Tigers Expert Picks and Betting Guide - 4/16/2026

-110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-110

Kris Bubic – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kris Bubic has utilized his non-fastballs 11.7% less often this year (44.4%) than he did last season (56.1%).
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.246) implies that Jac Caglianone has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .171 actual batting average.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Michael Massey – Over/Under Total Bases
Michael Massey pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 10th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
Keider Montero was on point in his last game started and conceded 2 ER.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Riley Greene has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (94% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Detroit grades out as the #1 team in the league when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (17.7% rate since the start of last season).
Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+9.45 Units / 16% ROI)
Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.40 Units / 28% ROI)
Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+9.35 Units / 69% ROI)

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