Starting Lineup for Blue Jays vs Brewers - April 16, 2026

-105O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-115

Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
Patrick Corbin has been one of the unluckiest mound aces in Major League Baseball on balls in play since the start of last season with a .324 BABIP and should see that luck normalize going forward.
Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
Daulton Varsho has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Rating 4th-steepest in the league since the start of last season, Toronto Blue Jays hitters as a unit have notched a 15.6° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (a reliable stat to evaluate power skills).
Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
Brandon Sproat is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in American Family Field — the #8 HR venue among all stadiums — in today’s game.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
Greg Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+310/-450)
Greg Jones has performed at a clip of 0 steals per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, ranking in the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
Milwaukee Brewers bats jointly rank 30th- in the game for power since the start of last season when judging by their 7% Barrel%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line +1.0 (-150)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+7.20 Units / 36% ROI)
Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.70 Units / 27% ROI)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)

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