Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
(+100/-120)+100
As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on July 29, 2025, they come off a thrilling victory yesterday, edging the Red Sox 5-4. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they continue their three-game series at Target Field, with the Twins currently sitting at 51-55 and struggling through a below-average season, while the Red Sox hold a better 57-51 record, showcasing their above-average performance.
The Twins are projected to start Pierson Ohl, who ranks as the 181st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, reflecting his struggles this season. Ohl is expected to pitch around 4.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, and his tendency to give up 5.2 hits and 0.9 walks per game does not bode well against a potent Red Sox lineup. Meanwhile, Lucas Giolito is on the mound for Boston. Though his overall performance has been subpar, ranking poorly in Power Rankings, he has a solid Win/Loss record of 6-2 this season and projects to pitch 5.5 innings with an average of 2.9 earned runs.
Offensively, the Red Sox rank as the 6th best in MLB, bolstered by their 8th-best team batting average, while the Twins sit at 16th for team offense, struggling particularly in batting average and team stolen bases. The projections suggest that Boston’s offensive prowess should give them an edge in this contest, especially given their current form compared to Minnesota’s inconsistent performance.
With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be competitive, and the Twins’ current moneyline of +100 reflects a tight contest. However, given the strength of the Red Sox’s lineup and their robust bullpen, they appear positioned to take the series lead.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Lucas Giolito – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)Throwing 92.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Lucas Giolito places in the 81st percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)Wilyer Abreu has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Pierson Ohl – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Pierson Ohl in the 24th percentile among all SPs in MLB.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-150)The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 30 games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+110)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 41 away games (+13.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)Trevor Story has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 36% ROI)