
Milwaukee Brewers
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Houston Astros
-195O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)+165
(-110/-110)+165
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Jacob Misiorowski’s 99.2-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 100th percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- David Hamilton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)David Hamilton’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 87-mph EV last year has fallen off to 84-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Christian Yelich has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Tatsuya Imai – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)Tatsuya Imai has tallied 11.7 outs per start this year, checking in at the 2nd percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- The Houston Astros have been the 7th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the seasonExplain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 8 games (+8.45 Units / 92% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-195)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games (+9.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Taylor Trammell – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+210/-280)Taylor Trammell has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+11.35 Units / 126% ROI)
