
Milwaukee Brewers
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Houston Astros
-185O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)+160
(-110/-110)+160
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Jacob Misiorowski’s 99.2-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 100th percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)This season, Jackson Chourio has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.9 mph compared to last year’s 92.8 mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Christian Yelich has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Tatsuya Imai – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)Tatsuya Imai has tallied 11.7 outs per start this year, checking in at the 2nd percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- The Houston Astros have been the 7th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the seasonExplain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
