
St. Louis Cardinals
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Toronto Blue Jays
+120O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-140
(-110/-110)-140
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Quinn Mathews – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)With 7 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Quinn Mathews will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under Total BasesLars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)In his previous start, Kevin Gausman was rolling and put up 11 strikeouts.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)Daulton Varsho has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Toronto Blue Jays (17.6 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-heavy set of batters of the day.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
