Pittsburgh Pirates
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Cincinnati Reds
-120O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+100
(-110/-110)+100
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Braxton Ashcraft will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing hitters in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Marcell Ozuna’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.9% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Pittsburgh Pirates bats as a group place 10th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 8.4% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+100)Among every team today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Elly De La Cruz has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 99-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 93.8-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Nathaniel Lowe has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.