Marlins vs Mets Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 8/01/2026

Miami Marlins

@

New York Mets

Miami Marlins Insights

• Tyler Phillips – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Tyler Phillips’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (64.7% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 7% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins ranks them as the #26 squad in baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

New York Mets Insights

• Zach Thornton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Zachary Thornton’s 91.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 18th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyrone Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Tyrone Taylor has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph to 96.3-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (39.3% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+8.25 Units / 37% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-155/+120)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.55 Units / 31% ROI)