Read the Boxscore for Rockies vs Astros – Thursday April 16th, 2026

Colorado Rockies

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Houston Astros

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
  Tomoyuki Sugano’s 2399.3-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 76th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Hunter Goodman has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.1-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 91.9-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Hunter Goodman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ryan Weiss – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ryan Weiss to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Houston Astros in this game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .325, which is significantly worse than their actual wOBA of .346 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 away games (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+250/-345)
  Yordan Alvarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+9.75 Units / 122% ROI)