Explore Pirates vs Brewers Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 8/11/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Milwaukee Brewers

On August 11, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at American Family Field in what is expected to be a pivotal matchup in the NL Central. The Brewers, currently sporting a strong record of 73-44, are having a solid season and are positioned well for a playoff run. In contrast, the Pirates, with a record of 51-68, are struggling and sit at the bottom of the division.

The Brewers are coming off a series against the Pirates, where they dominated, and they will look to carry that momentum into this game. Jose Quintana, projected to start for the Brewers, has performed fairly well this season with a 9-4 record and a respectable ERA of 3.57. However, his 4.63 xFIP suggests he may be due for some regression. Quintana’s low strikeout rate of 16.6% could work in his favor against a Pirates offense that ranks 6th in the league for strikeouts.

On the other side, Andrew Heaney is expected to take the mound for the Pirates. Heaney has been underwhelming with a 5-9 record and an ERA of 4.77, along with a troubling 5.41 xERA which indicates he has also benefitted from some good fortune this season. His low strikeout percentage of 16.4% could be further exploited by a Brewers lineup that ranks among the league’s best in contact hitting.

Given the Brewers’ superior record, solid offensive statistics, and home-field advantage, they are positioned as significant favorites in this matchup. With an implied team total of 4.67 runs, the projections suggest that Milwaukee’s bats should be ready to capitalize on Heaney’s struggles. This matchup presents a promising opportunity for sports bettors favoring the Brewers to secure a win at home.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has fallen 2.1 mph this year (89.4 mph) below where it was last year (91.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Tommy Pham is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Jose Quintana has averaged 92.9 adjusted pitches per outing this year, placing in the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  There has been a decrease in Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity this season, from 87.8 mph last year to 85.6 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-200)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 64 games (+30.15 Units / 35% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 102 games (+18.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Isaac Collins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Isaac Collins has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.20 Units / 34% ROI)