Red Sox vs Mets Best Bets and Expert Picks – Sunday July 12, 2026

Boston Red Sox

@

New York Mets

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Payton Tolle – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+160/-210)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Payton Tolle to throw 83 pitches in this game (7th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Zach Thornton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  With 7 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Zachary Thornton will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Zack Short – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Zack Short is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Boston (#1-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Zack Short – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Zack Short hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units / 46% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 10 away games (+10.40 Units / 77% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+8.80 Units / 16% ROI)