Picks and Betting Guide for Rockies vs Giants – Sunday, July 12, 2026

Colorado Rockies

@

San Francisco Giants

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Tyler Freeman is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Colorado Rockies today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .311, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .326 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Trevor McDonald – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Because flyball batters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Trevor McDonald (51.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Rafael Devers has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.20 Units / 35% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Run Line +1.5 (-160)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Drew Gilbert – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)
  Drew Gilbert has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.10 Units / 52% ROI)