Player Predictions for Blue Jays vs Guardians – June 26, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays logo

Toronto Blue Jays

@
Cleveland Guardians logo

Cleveland Guardians

+115O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)
-140

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 26, 2025, in what shapes up to be a competitive matchup at Progressive Field. This game is crucial for both teams as they aim to gain momentum in the American League standings. The Guardians currently sit at 40-38, having just defeated the Blue Jays 5-4 in their last contest on June 25. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays, with a record of 42-37, are holding above .500 and will be looking to bounce back after their recent loss.

Cleveland will hand the ball to Tanner Bibee, who has shown flashes of promise this season, ranking 62nd among starting pitchers according to advanced statistics. He has displayed some inconsistency with a 4-7 record, but his 3.86 ERA suggests he has been somewhat effective. Bibee’s last outing was impressive, as he pitched a complete game, although he allowed four earned runs. He projects to pitch 6.0 innings today but may struggle with run prevention, averaging 2.7 earned runs allowed per game.

On the other side, Toronto will counter with Kevin Gausman, who has struggled recently, highlighted by his last start where he surrendered seven earned runs. Gausman’s season record of 5-6 and an ERA of 4.60 indicate he has not found his rhythm this year. Projections show he may allow a similar number of earned runs as Bibee today, but the Guardians’ offense, ranked 25th in MLB, has struggled to produce consistently.

Despite the Guardians’ recent success, the betting markets have set their moneyline at -135, reflecting a tight matchup. As both teams look to gain an edge, on-field performance and pitching effectiveness will be critical factors in determining the outcome of this pivotal game.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

  • Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
    Kevin Gausman’s sinker rate has decreased by 5.3% from last season to this one (5.4% to 0.1%) .
    Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
  • Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155)
    Andres Gimenez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph dropping to 79.5-mph over the last 14 days.
    Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
  • The Toronto Blue Jays (18.9 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone group of batters of all teams today.
    Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

  • Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
    Tanner Bibee’s fastball spin rate has decreased 116 rpm this year (2245 rpm) below where it was last season (2361 rpm).
    Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
  • Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
    Toronto’s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Daniel Schneemann, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
    Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
  • Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
    The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
    Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

  • Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
    The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+8.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
    The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 51 games (+14.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
    Bo Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.20 Units / 57% ROI)