
Milwaukee Brewers
@

Los Angeles Angels
-225O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)+190
(+100/-120)+190
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 9.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Jacob Misiorowski’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (63.5 vs. 54.4% last year) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Typically, hitters like William Contreras who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Walbert Urena.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Brice Turang has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.4%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+190)The Los Angeles Angels infield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Mike Trout – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)In the last 7 days, Mike Trout’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 17.5% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Los Angeles Angels have been the 8th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forwardExplain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+8.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 away games (+4.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Jake Bauers has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+13.15 Units / 43% ROI)
