
Detroit Tigers
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Athletics
-130O/U: 10
(-110/-110)+110
(-110/-110)+110
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Keider Montero – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-180)Compared to league average, Keider Montero has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -7.8 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Hao-Yu Lee – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Hao Yu Lee has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.1-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 89-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Detroit Tigers – 2H MoneylineThe Detroit Tigers bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Athletics Insights
- Gage Jump – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Gage Jump will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Donovan Walton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Donovan Walton’s true offensive talent to be a .285, suggesting that he has had some very good luck this year given the .084 disparity between that mark and his actual .369 wOBA.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Henry Bolte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Henry Bolte hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Athletics – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+7.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+9.05 Units / 35% ROI)
