Betting Odds and Picks for Mariners vs Pirates - 6/23/26

-135O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+115

Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-135)
Among all the teams today, the 5th-worst outfield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Cal Raleigh has been unlucky this year, posting a .252 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .345 — a .093 deviation.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Seattle’s 92.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #8 team in the league this year by this metric.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Mitch Keller – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
Mitch Keller has averaged 92.1 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 79th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
Spencer Horwitz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
Ryan O’Hearn has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.65 Units / 34% ROI)
Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.25 Units / 89% ROI)
Cole Young – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
Cole Young has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.95 Units / 48% ROI)

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