Seattle Mariners
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
-125O/U: 8.5
(+100/-120)+105
(+100/-120)+105
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-125)Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Seattle’s 92.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #8 team in the league this year by this metric.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Mitch Keller – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Mitch Keller has averaged 92.1 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 78th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)Spencer Horwitz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Spencer Horwitz has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.25 Units / 89% ROI)