Betting Guide and Odds for Marlins vs Mets – Sunday August 2, 2026

Miami Marlins

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New York Mets

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Compared to average, Sandy Alcantara has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an extra 7.8 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers, Esteury Ruiz, Owen Caissie).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  The Miami Marlins have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Robert Stock in today’s game, which is especially problematic given his huge platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Jorge Polanco is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 35 games (+16.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.35 Units / 46% ROI)