Score for Pirates vs Blue Jays Game - May 23, 2026

-140O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)+120

Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Paul Skenes’s 96.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1-mph decrease from last year’s 97.5-mph mark.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
Henry Davis has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .160 BA is significantly deflated relative to his .221 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
Patrick Corbin has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
Lenyn Sosa has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-140)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.70 Units / 24% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 40 away games (+7.10 Units / 16% ROI)
Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
Henry Davis has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 51% ROI)

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