Rockies vs Pirates Bets and Betting Trends - 5/13/26

+155O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-180

Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jose Quintana has relied on his non-fastballs 6.1% more often this year (50.5%) than he did last season (44.4%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
Edouard Julien has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 91.7-mph average.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Compared to their .322 overall projected rate, the .299 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense in this game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal missing some of their usual firepower.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-185)
Mitch Keller has put up a .238 BABIP this year, a sign that he has been one of the luckiest hurlers in the majors on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.
Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
Pittsburgh’s 93.3-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #5 offense in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+5.45 Units / 13% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+3.75 Units / 7% ROI)
Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
Mickey Moniak has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+15.30 Units / 45% ROI)

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