
Los Angeles Angels
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Cleveland Guardians
+135O/U: 7
(-105/-115)-155
(-105/-115)-155
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Reid Detmers – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)Compared to average, Reid Detmers has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.1 adjusted pitches each outing.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Yoan Moncada – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)Yoan Moncada is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)Zach Neto pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Parker Messick – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)With 9 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Parker Messick faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Brayan Rocchio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Brayan Rocchio’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 88-mph EV last year has lowered to 85.5-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Parker Messick – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Projected catcher Austin Hedges grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.40 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jo Adell – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-145)Jo Adell has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+12.35 Units / 49% ROI)
