Read the Game Recap for Reds vs Phillies - May 18th, 2026

+105O/U: 10
(-110/-110)-125

Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Nick Lodolo will wring up 16.7 outs in this outing.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
In comparison to his 90.7-mph average last year, Elly De La Cruz’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93.8 mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Cincinnati Reds bats as a group place 2nd- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 11.6% Barrel%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
Andrew Painter has been unlucky this year, putting up a 6.21 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.45 — a 1.76 disparity.
Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
Justin Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
Justin Crawford is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cincinnati (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Bryce Harper has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-125)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.45 Units / 18% ROI)
Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)

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