Weather for Cardinals vs Cubs Game – 8/16/26

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Chicago Cubs

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Alec Burleson has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last year’s 92.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• JJ Wetherholt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  JJ Wetherholt has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 12.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Edward Cabrera to have a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 79 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pete Crow-Armstrong’s true offensive talent to be a .340, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .051 gap between that mark and his actual .391 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-180)
  The Chicago Cubs projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-best on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-180)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games (+14.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 45 away games (+8.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 30% ROI)