Player Prop Picks for Nationals vs Mets – 8/16/2026

Washington Nationals

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New York Mets

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  Jake Irvin’s curveball usage has decreased by 5.8% from last season to this one (29.9% to 24.1%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Typically, bats like Daylen Lile who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Christian Scott.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Dylan Crews hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Christian Scott – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Christian Scott struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his previous start and accumulated 1 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be wise to expect better numbers for the New York Mets offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.65 Units / 30% ROI)