
Kansas City Royals
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Los Angeles Angels
-125O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+105
(-110/-110)+105
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (-125)The Kansas City Royals infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest out of every team on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Michael Massey is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Kansas City Royals offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Ryan Johnson – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-185)Ryan Johnson has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 7.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)The Kansas City Royals don’t have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Josh Lowe is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch the entire game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Los Angeles Angels – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games at home (+10.70 Units / 57% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+6.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)Vaughn Grissom has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.20 Units / 45% ROI)
