Read the Boxscore for Marlins vs Rockies - Thursday July 2nd, 2026

-135O/U: 12.5
(-105/-115)+115

Ryan Gusto – Over/Under 12.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)
Compared to league average, Ryan Gusto has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -9.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Griffin Conine – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Griffin Conine has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
The Miami Marlins bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
With 7 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Michael Lorenzen will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Brett Sullivan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brett Sullivan in the 8th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
Brett Sullivan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Brett Sullivan ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+115)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games at home (+3.80 Units / 29% ROI)
Miami Marlins – Run Line -1.5 (+110)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games (+9.05 Units / 50% ROI)
Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-120/-110)
Jakob Marsee has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 26% ROI)

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