
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Athletics
-160O/U: 11
(-105/-115)+140
(-105/-115)+140
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)Shohei Ohtani’s 97.4-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 97th percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under HitsMax Muncy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The underlying talent of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order today (.327 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .342 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Athletics Insights
- Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)J.T. Ginn is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.6% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Sutter Health Park — the #2 HR venue among all parks — in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Jeff McNeil’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.6-mph figure last season has decreased to 86.2-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Athletics – 2H MoneylineThe Athletics bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Athletics – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 35 away games (+8.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-145/+110)Shohei Ohtani has hit the Walks Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
