
Arizona Diamondbacks
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Baltimore Orioles
+115O/U: 9
(-120/+100)-135
(-120/+100)-135
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Eduardo Rodriguez’s 91.4-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 13th percentile among all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future gamesExplain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Kyle Bradish has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 8.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Gunnar Henderson is certain to never face a bullpen mismatch the entire game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Baltimore Orioles – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst among all the teams in baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-105/-125)Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Walks Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)
