Discover Odds and Betting Trends for Mets vs Dodgers – 4/14/26

New York Mets

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Los Angeles Dodgers

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  Nolan McLean is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #2 HR venue among all parks — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Extreme groundball batters like Marcus Semien are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The New York Mets have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has relied on his secondary pitches 11.1% more often this year (68.1%) than he did last season (57%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Will Smith has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 13.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-205)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 40 games (+11.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 23 away games (+4.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 30% ROI)