Learn About Twins vs Guardians Picks and Betting Trends - Saturday May 09, 2026

-105O/U: 7.5
(-120/+100)-115

Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
Joe Ryan’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (43.6% compared to 37.6% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Kody Clemens has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (65% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
Tanner Bibee’s 2149-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 12th percentile among all SPs.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
Steven Kwan’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.3-mph average last year has fallen to 82.2-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games at home (+6.20 Units / 28% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+7.45 Units / 17% ROI)

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