Current Player Trends for Rockies vs Phillies – Saturday May 09, 2026

Colorado Rockies

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Philadelphia Phillies

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Kyle Freeland will post an average of 5.3 strikeouts in this outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Willi Castro’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 89.3-mph figure last year has dropped off to 86.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  With 7 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Aaron Nola faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alec Bohm’s true offensive talent to be a .317, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .117 gap between that figure and his actual .200 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)
  Brandon Marsh has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.40 Units / 29% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• Edmundo Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Edmundo Sosa has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 20% ROI)