
Colorado Rockies
@

Philadelphia Phillies
+165O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-190
(-110/-110)-190
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Kyle Freeland – Over/Under Pitching OutsAs forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Freeland is expected to average a total of 16.5 outs in today’s outing.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
- Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+230/-315)Edouard Julien has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.5-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.5-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Colorado Rockies – 2H MoneylineThe Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)With 6 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Aaron Nola faces a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alec Bohm’s true offensive talent to be a .317, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .117 gap between that figure and his actual .200 wOBA.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- Brandon Marsh – Over/Under Total BasesBrandon Marsh has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
