Injuries Update for Red Sox vs Mets – July 10, 2026

Boston Red Sox

@

New York Mets

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+120)
  The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Jarren Duran has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Given that flyball batters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Nolan McLean (48.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jorge Polanco is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Boston (#1-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-145)
  The 5th-best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the New York Mets.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 35% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 45% ROI)
• Tsung-Che Cheng – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+215/-295)
  Tsung-Che Cheng has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.20 Units / 105% ROI)