Get the Red Sox vs Rays Injury Report – Tuesday, June 09, 2026

Boston Red Sox

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Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Payton Tolle – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Payton Tolle has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 72.2% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Mickey Gasper – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.121) provides evidence that Mickey Gasper has been lucky since the start of last season with his .217 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jarren Duran has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+100)
  Among every team in action today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Cedric Mullins has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 2.8% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Tampa Bay Rays (19.5 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone team of hitters on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+12.20 Units / 34% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 away games (+6.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• Payton Tolle – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Payton Tolle has hit the Strikeouts Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.85 Units / 14% ROI)