Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Yankees vs Guardians - 6/09/26

-125O/U: 8.5
(-115/-105)+105

Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
Tallying 79.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Gerrit Cole falls in the 17th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Over the past week, Ben Rice’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 16.9% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
Anthony Volpe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 8th-deepest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Slade Cecconi has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.5% more often this year (50.8%) than he did last season (45.3%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
Steven Kwan’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 86.3-mph figure last year has fallen to 82.6-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Hedges (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.00 Units / 12% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 45 away games (+5.15 Units / 10% ROI)
Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+190/-250)
Jose Ramirez has hit the Walks Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+5.85 Units / 20% ROI)

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