Game Location for Blue Jays vs Rays – 5/4/26

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Eric Lauer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Eric Lauer has gone to his change-up 10.8% more often this year (18%) than he did last year (7.2%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 18.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit lower than his 27.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  In his last outing, Nick Martinez performed well and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jonny Deluca – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)
  In the past two weeks, Jonny DeLuca’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-130)
  The weakest projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+170)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 40% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI)
• Kazuma Okamoto – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+380/-580)
  Kazuma Okamoto has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+20.50 Units / 205% ROI)