Check the Injuries Update for Cardinals vs Royals - 6/21/2026

-125O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+105

Dustin May – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
Dustin May has averaged 92.7 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 80th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Typically, batters like Ivan Herrera who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Stephen Kolek.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Stephen Kolek in the 13th percentile among all starters in MLB.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
Michael Massey is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.65 Units / 28% ROI)
St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.25 Units / 32% ROI)
Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Alec Burleson has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+9.55 Units / 37% ROI)

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