Player Insights for Blue Jays vs Cubs - 6/21/26

-110O/U: 7
(-120/+100)-110

Dylan Cease – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
Compared to the average starting pitcher, Dylan Cease has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 10.5 adjusted pitches each outing.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Myles Straw – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
Myles Straw is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
Alejandro Kirk has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

David Peterson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
The Toronto Blue Jays have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over David Peterson in today’s game.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.2-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 90-mph figure.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
The best projected offense of the day in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chicago Cubs – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games (+14.95 Units / 43% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 36% ROI)
Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
Alejandro Kirk has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.25 Units / 33% ROI)

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