Check the Betting Guide and Odds for Braves vs Orioles – Friday July 24th, 2026

Atlanta Braves

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Baltimore Orioles

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Grant Holmes’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (43.9 vs. 33.3% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Drake Baldwin has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last year’s 94.2-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Atlanta Braves have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Austin Riley, Jorge Mateo, Joey Bart).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Among all starters, Trevor Rogers’s fastball spin rate of 2465 rpm grades out in the 87th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Despite posting a .304 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gunnar Henderson has had bad variance on his side given the .042 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .346.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 40 games at home (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.60 Units / 36% ROI)
• Eli White – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1900)
  Eli White has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+13.50 Units / 338% ROI)