See the Guardians vs Rays Matchup Preview and Score Prediction - Friday July 24th, 2026

+115O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)-140

Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Joey Cantillo has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 7.1% more often this season (64.7%) than he did last year (57.6%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Austin Hedges – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Austin Hedges’s true offensive talent to be a .269, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .056 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .325 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Rhys Hoskins pulls a lot of his flyballs (58.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-140)
Among every team playing today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
Cedric Mullins is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Tampa Bay Rays with a 19.4% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+22.75 Units / 45% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 away games (+5.15 Units / 23% ROI)
Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.15 Units / 20% ROI)

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