Watch the D-Backs vs Nationals Game Highlights - July 24th, 2026

-125O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)+105

Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Eduardo Rodriguez has relied on his non-fastballs 7.6% more often this season (52.1%) than he did last year (44.5%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
Corbin Carroll has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 94.5-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
Out of all SPs, Zack Littell’s fastball spin rate of 2022 rpm grades out in the 7th percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates CJ Abrams’s true offensive talent to be a .336, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .046 gap between that figure and his actual .382 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+7.90 Units / 20% ROI)
Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 away games (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI)
Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
Gabriel Moreno has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+11.15 Units / 37% ROI)

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