Phillies vs Braves Game Time – 9/13/2026

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Andrew Painter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Andrew Painter’s 95.9-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 89th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Bryce Harper has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.5-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.5-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Bryson Stott hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Grant Holmes – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
  Grant Holmes has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 6.4 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Ha-Seong Kim – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  In terms of his batting average, Ha-seong Kim has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .194 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .235.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Atlanta Braves offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-130)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 30 games at home (+12.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 away games (+3.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-235)
  Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.05 Units / 36% ROI)