Betting Odds and Picks for Blue Jays vs Yankees – 5/20/26

Toronto Blue Jays

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New York Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Trey Yesavage – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Trey Yesavage has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed batters in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Daulton Varsho’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 89.5-mph mark last year has fallen off to 86.7-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Out of all starters, Cameron Schlittler’s fastball velocity of 97.1 mph ranks in the 93rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Ben Rice has been lucky this year, compiling a .440 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .365 — a .075 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• New York Yankees hitters as a group place in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 11.9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-170)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 35 games at home (+8.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-145)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+110/-140)
  Ben Rice has hit the Walks Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.85 Units / 25% ROI)