
Milwaukee Brewers
@

Chicago Cubs
-110O/U: 6.5
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)Kyle Harrison is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue among all parks today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- David Hamilton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)David Hamilton’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 87-mph mark last season has fallen off to 83.4-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Milwaukee Brewers – 2H MoneylineThe Milwaukee Brewers bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)Edward Cabrera’s change-up percentage has spiked by 7.6% from last season to this one (25.6% to 33.2%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Typically, bats like Seiya Suzuki who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Kyle Harrison.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)In today’s game, Pete Crow-Armstrong is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.5% rate (95th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)Carson Kelly has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.40 Units / 22% ROI)
