Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Mets vs Nationals Wednesday, May 20, 2026

New York Mets

@

Washington Nationals

New York Mets Insights

• Zach Thornton – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Zachary Thornton has been granted a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing an -11.6 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+130/-165)
  As it relates to his batting average talent, Bo Bichette is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• The New York Mets have been the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Zack Littell has used his change-up 7.3% less often this season (20%) than he did last season (27.3%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Daylen Lile has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+9.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.05 Units / 30% ROI)
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Curtis Mead has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.45 Units / 51% ROI)