Bets and Betting Tips for Reds vs Pirates – May 02, 2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Rhett Lowder – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Rhett Lowder has averaged 17 outs per start this year, placing in the 78th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Extreme groundball bats like JJ Bleday are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Carmen Mlodzinski.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Carmen Mlodzinski has used his change-up 16.5% more often this year (28.1%) than he did last season (11.6%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Marcell Ozuna is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pittsburgh Pirates bats as a group rank near the bottom of Major League Baseball this year ( 9th-worst) in regard to their 88.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.