Get the Latest Score Updates for D-Backs vs Rays – Saturday August 17, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays will host the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 17, 2024, at Tropicana Field, marking the second game of their interleague series. As the Rays look to bounce back from their recent struggles, they find themselves with a record of 60-61 this season, which puts them in a middle-of-the-pack position. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks are having a strong season at 69-54, showcasing their talent and depth.

In their last matchup, the Rays suffered a disappointing defeat, while the Diamondbacks have been riding high, with their best hitter, Jake McCarthy, putting up impressive numbers over the past week. McCarthy has recorded 13 hits, 5 runs, 12 RBIs, and 2 home runs, all while boasting a .500 batting average and a 1.382 OPS during that stretch.

On the mound, the Rays will rely on Jeffrey Springs, who has had an average season with a 0-1 record and a 4.61 ERA. His projections indicate he is likely to pitch around 5.4 innings today, allowing 2.2 earned runs but may struggle with strikeouts, projected at just 4.9. Springs’ peripherals suggest he could be due for some improvement, though he has shown some inconsistency with a 6.03 FIP.

Conversely, Zac Gallen, projected to start for the Diamondbacks, has been solid with a 9-5 record and a 3.69 ERA. Gallen is expected to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs while striking out 6.8 batters, showcasing a clear advantage in terms of strikeout potential.

Despite the Rays’ strong bullpen ranking as the 5th best in MLB, their offense has struggled, ranking 25th overall. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have the 2nd best offense, indicating a significant matchup advantage. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, this contest is expected to be closely contested, but the Diamondbacks appear to have the upper hand heading into this critical game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Zac Gallen has relied on his curveball 5.6% more often this season (28.3%) than he did last season (22.7%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Ketel Marte has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last year’s 91.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Projected catcher Jose Herrera projects as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jonny Deluca – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Despite posting a .243 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jonny Deluca has had some very poor luck given the .052 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .295.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 66 games at home (+18.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 68 games (+19.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+9.15 Units / 38% ROI)