Find the Best Player Prop Bets for Mariners vs Pirates – Thursday June 25, 2026

Seattle Mariners

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Recording 18 outs per GS this year on average, Bryce Miller checks in at the 91st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Cal Raleigh’s true offensive talent to be a .345, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .093 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .252 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  The Seattle Mariners have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bubba Chandler today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Spencer Horwitz is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.