
Milwaukee Brewers
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New York Mets
-165O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)+140
(+100/-120)+140
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)The New York Mets have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Andrew Vaughn has been lucky this year, compiling a .372 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .329 — a .043 disparity.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- Zach Thornton – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Out of all starters, Zachary Thornton’s fastball velocity of 91.3 mph ranks in the 16th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- A.J. Ewing – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)A.J. Ewing is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- It may be wise to expect better results for the New York Mets offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Luis Torrens – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2700)Luis Torrens has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+23.50 Units / 392% ROI)
